The Political Science Guy: Don't Panic

By now you have heard about swine flu. The World Health Organization raised its global alert level for the swine flu on Monday, as Mexican officials reported that the death toll from the outbreak had reached 149. Of course, news stories love to use scary terms like “outbreak,” “epidemic,” and “pandemic.” They are not interchangeable. Each describes an increasing degree of the number of infected and the geographical scope of the infection. We are not close to having a pandemic yet. And if we do it may not be anything like a catastrophe. The disease looks to respond to existing medication.

According to Dr David Ozonoff, a doctor and chronic-disease epidemiologist at the Boston University School of Public Health, we just don't know whether this will develop into a pandemic:

Flu pandemics are caused by variants of the influenza virus which are new and novel to our immune systems, and the current swine flu virus is just such an example. There is no natural immunity to it (that we know of at this moment), it causes human disease (most of the 144 different flu subtypes just infect other animals, like birds), and it appears to be fairly transmissible. If its transmission becomes sustained as more cases are reported (at least four countries have confirmed cases), we may well face a pandemic, the contemporaneous infection of many people in many parts of the world.

How is swine flu different from SARS and avian flu?

The new swine flu cases are caused by an influenza strain called H1N1, which appears to be easily passed from person to person.

But doctors have little information yet on the mortality rate, as there is no reliable data on the total number of people infected. Reports from the United States suggest that some cases may be mild and therefore may go undetected — allowing the disease to spread further.

In contrast, the lethal avian flu that has kept world health authorities anxious for years is caused by H5N1 influenza virus. It has killed 257 of the 421 people who have contracted it, or 61 percent. But it has shown very little ability to pass from person to person, mainly infecting poultry, and some experts have suggested that there may be something about the H5N1 virus that makes it inherently less transmissible among people.

SARS — severe acute respiratory syndrome — is both easily spread and virulent. In the 2003 outbreak in Hong Kong, it killed 299 of the 1,755 people it infected there, or 17 percent.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have provided the following common sense info to avoid becoming infected:

Avoid close contact.

Avoid close contact with people who are sick. When you are sick, keep your distance from others to protect them from getting sick too.

Stay home when you are sick.

If possible, stay home from work, school, and errands when you are sick. You will help prevent others from catching your illness.

Cover your mouth and nose.

Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when coughing or sneezing. It may prevent those around you from getting sick.

Clean your hands.

Washing your hands often will help protect you from germs.

Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth.

Germs are often spread when a person touches something that is contaminated with germs and then touches his or her eyes, nose, or mouth.

Practice other good health habits.

Get plenty of sleep, be physically active, manage your stress, drink plenty of fluids, and eat nutritious food.